An Outlook to 2025

The combination of abundant high-grade resources, strong demand growth from China and a more practical mining code, developed to be more supportive of exports, has led Guinea to become fertile ground for development of a new generation of bauxite mining and export projects.

Despite the country’s sometimes turbulent history, growing export volumes support a view that Guinea has finally turned the corner and stands to consolidate its current position as the preferred long-term, high-volume, low-cost supplier of bauxite to the growing global, and particularly Chinese, market.

Several issues, however, such as the government of Guinea expropriating existing concession holders, industrial disputes arising from rapid growth, and environmental damage caused by mining companies, all have the potential to significantly disrupt what could become the lifeblood of China’s bauxite supply chain for decades to come.

This report brings together a first-hand view on the ground in Guinea and a detailed outlook for the global bauxite market, especially in China, to form a view on the outlook for Guinea’s bauxite mining industry over the next seven years, including a detailed assessment of new projects, industry cost structure and infrastructure developments, all of which will play a pivotal role in determining the future of the industry.

About CM

CM is an independent, privately owned, commodity advisory group, specialising across a range of non-ferrous industries, particularly the global bauxite, alumina and primary aluminium sectors. Our core capability is to conduct detailed, bottom-up, single-scope industry and project assessments, aimed at generating informed, insightful market views and industry outlooks.

CM sets the benchmark in global bauxite industry analysis. Our databases, analytical frameworks and market outlook capabilities have been refined over decades of intense industry analysis. Our hypotheses and our insights are used, and tested, regularly by the world’s leading mining, project management and investment companies. CM has a strong capability, and presence, in China, employing 10 FTEs who collect and analyse bauxite and alumina industry data every day. Our local knowledge and strong ‘guanxi’ (network) across the entire global Al community position us as a world authority on the Al supply chain.

CM is also the developer of the CBIX ViU-adjusted bauxite price index (published at thebauxiteindex.com). The company has the proven capability to acquire and analyse critical bauxite market data and intelligence, not only to keep its clients fully informed on prices, volumes, qualities, inventories and other critical industry data, but also to generate ViU-adjusted bauxite price forecasts.

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