Although scandium (Sc) is an element historically referred to as a Rare Earth (RE) metal, more recently it has been recognised as a stand-alone metal with the potential for several high value and high-volume commercial applications. Scandium has long been recognised as a valuable metal, however it’s low concentration in the earth’s crust, of 22 ppm, has meant prohibitively expensive extraction costs, at least as a primary mine output, and especially given its historically low demand fundamentals.
The Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) market has been the largest global market for scandia (the oxide of Sc) for the past decade, representing an estimated 90% of total global demand in 2020. Growth prospects for the SOFC market are forecast to remain strong over the next decade (~20%).
Scandium is a highly effective alloying element for aluminium; small additions (0.1- 0.2%) can result in major improvements in overall performance and properties, including strength, corrosion, weldability, ductility, anodization performance and fatigue resistance. No other alloying element(s) gives the same level of multiple property improvements in such a diverse range of alloy systems as scandium.
A key enabler for the Al-Sc sector, we believe, is a close developmental relationship between new supply and downstream markets which, together, could grow the market at a rate more closely aligned with higher uptake rates.
Primary mine development proposals in Australia have significantly higher concentrations of scandium, up to 500ppm, and thus could potentially lower production costs by a significant margin. Could this new supply base lead to the emergence new markets and significantly stronger demand over the long-term?
On the global supply side of scandium, the United States and Europe have listed scandium as a critical mineral, while China has elevated it to a national strategic material. On the demand side, the commercialization of SOFCs, the widespread adoption of 3D printing, and the maturation of aluminum‑scandium alloy technology will unlock large‑scale application potential.
Over the next 5~10 years, scandia will transition from a niche rare material to a strategic advanced material, driven by the dual engines of SOFCs and aerospace. Demand is expected to maintain a CAGR of 15%~20%, with both market size and prices rising in tandem.
CM’s 2018 Scandium Report investigates the outlook for the scandium market to 2028, concentrating on both the supply and demand outlook, especially the potential for the metal to become widely used in large volume applications, such as SOFCs and Al-Sc alloys in heat exchangers (HEX).
