An Outlook to 2025

CM’s new 2021 Guinea bauxite report, released this month, has identified an additional 24 MTPY new export capacity and 32.5 MTPY new mining capacity to come on-stream in Guinea during calendar 2021, significantly increasing the country’s total capacity and adding more volume to an already over-supplied Chinese market. Although we forecast strong demand growth out of China, new capacity from Guinea risks the market entering a an extended period of oversupply, increasing the likelihood of lower prices for longer. The report also identifies more planned investments by Chinese refiners in Guinea seeking to integrate upstream, a strategy aimed at securing long-term supply, but reducing the size of China’s contestable market as a result. Could Guinea kill the goose that laid the golden egg?

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About CM

CM is an independent, privately owned, commodity advisory group, specialising across a range of non-ferrous industries, particularly the global bauxite, alumina and primary aluminium sectors. Our core capability is to conduct detailed, bottom-up, single-scope industry and project assessments, aimed at generating informed, insightful market views and industry outlooks.

CM sets the benchmark in global bauxite industry analysis. Our databases, analytical frameworks and market outlook capabilities have been refined over decades of intense industry analysis. Our hypotheses and our insights are used, and tested, regularly by the world’s leading mining, project management and investment companies. CM has a strong capability, and presence, in China, employing 10 FTEs who collect and analyse bauxite and alumina industry data every day. Our local knowledge and strong ‘guanxi’ (network) across the entire global Al community position us as a world authority on the Al supply chain.

CM is also the developer of the CBIX ViU-adjusted bauxite price index (published at The company has the proven capability to acquire and analyse critical bauxite market data and intelligence, not only to keep its clients fully informed on prices, volumes, qualities, inventories and other critical industry data, but also to generate ViU-adjusted bauxite price forecasts.

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