Guinea Bauxite Outlook Report, 2025: Growth, Risk and Global Dependence
Tracking China’s reliance, Guinea’s expansions, and the future of supply
Guinea sits at the heart of global bauxite supply. Export capacity keeps expanding, yet the government is also cracking down, by suspending or restricting groups that fail to meet obligations, including refinery construction. The result? Rising supply risks that are now a key driver of bauxite prices.
China is the most exposed. In 2025, it is set to import over 140 Mt of bauxite from Guinea, meeting almost 60% of its alumina refining needs and underpinning more than a third of the world’s primary aluminium production. With domestic supply falling, China’s reliance on Guinea will only deepen. But at what cost?
Guinea’s interim government has taken a hard line on non-compliant operators, leading to mine closures, permit cancellations, and asset seizures, all with major impacts on export volumes and market prices. At the same time, it has signalled plans to tackle transfer pricing by shifting to index-based pricing. For China, its most critical supplier, adopting index pricing could mean higher costs, while for the market it may accelerate the push for new capacity elsewhere.
As the global aluminium industry binds itself ever more tightly to Guinea, the risks multiply; political, social, economic and logistical. With elections due in late 2025 and the giant Simandou iron ore project about to come online, Guinea’s influence on world mining has never been greater.
CM is pleased to release the 2025 edition of its flagship Guinea Bauxite Report, the most comprehensive, on-the-ground assessment of this fast-changing sector. Our team has visited mines and ports, met with officials, toured refinery sites, tracked vessels, and spoken with stakeholders across the value chain.
Inside, we tackle the big questions shaping the industry:
- How much export capacity will Guinea add in the next decade?
- What will happen to cost structures over the next five to ten years?
- How will government policy evolve, and with what impact?
- When will Guinea hit “peak exports,” and could over-capacity emerge?
- Can Guinea become a major alumina exporter?
- Which proposed refineries are most likely to be built?
This is the definitive guide to Guinea’s bauxite future.
To learn more and connect with a CM bauxite expert please click the enquiry button below.
