With domestic alumina supply rising by 4~5mtpy and domestic consumption holding stable in the year to date, the domestic alumina market is in slight surplus of 470 kt in 2019 as compared to a shortfall of 2.43 mln t in 2018. With stable supply and rising consumption, the domestic primary aluminium market is faced with a deficit of 840 kt in 2019, increasing from 180 kt in 2018.
As of end-June 2019, completed domestic alumina capacity was 83.67 mtpy with operational rates hovering between 80~85%. Completed primary aluminium capacity amounted to 40.16 mtpy with operational rates holding stable over 90%.
Destocking of domestic alumina began in mid-July 2018, seeing domestic inventory dropping by 1.2 mln t from July’s 6.84 mln t to 5.64 mln t by end-September 2018. Domestic alumina inventory has been in decline since October 2018, hovering in the 5.5 mln to 6.2 mln t range. Domestic primary aluminium inventory has been in decline since March 2019, dropping by nearly 680 kt from 1.72 mln t in March to 1.04 mln t in June.