Shanghai Nonferrous Metals News
SMM: 2020’s domestic alumina output is expected to rise by 3.4% y-o-y as a result of new capacity from Guangxi and Guizhou gradually coming online during the year. Furthermore, with an estimate of alumina net imports to remain at the same level as 2019, China may face a glut in alumina supply in 2020.
China’s primary aluminium capacity is expected to grow by more than 3 mtpy in 2020, exceeding the 1.3 mtpy growth of 2019. Meanwhile, de-stocking momentum during 2019 is unlikely to continue through to 2020, placing supply under pressure. New capacity is unlikely to come online all at once in H1 2020, for instance Yunnan Hongtai’s 2 mtpy aluminium project (via capacity replacement) and Yunnan Al’s Wenshan 500 ktpy project (new project) are scheduled to come online in H2 2020. Thanks to relatively high profit margins in late 2019, domestic smelters are unlikely cut operations in H1 2020.