According to Antaike, a total of 1.7 mln t primary aluminium capacity will be affected due to a recent typhoon and a series of incidents interrupting aluminium production in August. During August, there were production cuts at Shandong Weiqiao, Xinjiang Xinfa, and Sichuan Aba smelters. Meanwhile, Zhongwang has suspended some production lines and Jinning Al and Mg cut operations in line with the capacity replacement scheme.
New capacity growth came from Yunnan Haixin Al, Guizhou Denggao Al, Chalco Huarun, IM Mengtai, and Shaanxi Meixin during August, however overall monthly growth was less than the total monthly reduction, showing a general decline in output for August.
Antaike data shows China’s completed primary aluminium capacity at 40.73 mtpy by end-August, down 6.7% y-o-y (after elimination of non-compliant capacity ); 35.17 mtpy is operational, down 5.7% y-o-y and down 3.8% m-o-m, with the monthly rate falling to 86% in August. China’s August aluminium output is expected at 3 mln t, with average daily output dropping to 96.8 t.
Antaike analysts forecast China’s aluminum output will drop further in September, in view of interrupted production in mid-August (which is likely to continue through to September). In addition, Antaike forecast China’s 2019 aluminium output to decline sharply y-o-y, intensifying the supply shortage seen throughout the year.