Aladdiny: As of 5th February, operations at several domestic alumina refineries have already been impacted due to the outbreak of 2019-nCoV, with logistics, extended holidays at miners/producers, and lack of workers being the main issues. Traffic restrictions are interrupting both raw material arrivals and deliveries of alumina, extended holidays at mines have tightened up local supply of bauxite and coke gas and migrant workers have been prevented from returning back after the holiday, causing a severe shortage of workers. At present, on-site workers are often working overtime, with reduced productivity and efficiency overall.
According to Aladdiny, a total of 3 mtpy alumina capacity will be curbed during the 2019-nCoV epidemic period, of this figure, 2 mtpy capacity is a short-term reduction for 10~15 days, while the remaining 1 mtpy cut will be in excess of 30 days. Restart plans are totally subject to the result of the campaign against 2019-nCoV. Meanwhile, it is noted that 800 ktpy alumina capacity of Guangxi Tiangui has come online and is operational and several alumina refineries are operating as normal during the holiday period.
According to Aladdiny, China produced 5.8 mln t of alumina in January 2020, with average daily output of 187 kt, which is likely to drop to 185 kt for February 2020 as a result of the spread of 2019-nCoV.